No Cold War

No Cold War

Тhe recurrence of the “Cold War” between Russia and the West is lately much discussed. I do not think it is a good characterization. If they mean the very “Cold War” which took its launch in 1946 by Churchill’s Fulton speech, then the similarities are few.

The primary difference is that “Cold War” between the Soviet Union and the West, and afterwards – a weaponry competition, was taking place with regard to military and economic potential between compatible units, plus – the Soviet Union possessed manifold allies (satellites) in Europe, where it kept its troops, as well as in the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Today Russia cannot be sure even in Belarus and Kazakhstan case for 100%. And if we speak of economic potential, then, excluding gas and oil, Russia is equal to Turkey by its economic “power”.Yes, Russia is a nuclear state, but it seems to me to wave the nuclear truncheon in the 21st century is not an efficient strategy, it is more the style of “inadequate” states such as South Korea.       

Subsequently, there is no “Cold War”. There is an attempt by poor, technologically quasi-developed countries to resist world superpowers. Those attempts are not successful that much – Russia was not able to digest Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. (Meanwhile, the United Kingdom digested the destruction of Iraq and Libya.) Putin tried to find a counter-game in Syria, regarding that it is favorable to Bashar Assad to be Russia’s ally. Entering that game, Russia hoped to become a factor in the Middle East to be taken into consideration. Throughout some time it seemed it succeeded, Obama’s regime did not initiate sharp moves, though discontented. Trump came, who at first seemed a brother to Putin, but in reality has lower position with reference to Syrian issue.       

It is logical to assume that Russia will eventually have to “surrender” Assad and leave Syria (perhaps applying some tricks to “save its name”.) It does not promise anything good to Syria and Syrian Armenians in particular, I believe. If in Syria the so called “armed opposition” becomes the master, which apparently has pro-Turkish orientation, then you will not envy Christians, Kurds, Yezidis and Shias. The United Kingdom thereby will accomplish its plan to ultimately annihilate Syria.


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