First of all let me just enumerate the events that have taken place within a month. After the last Putin-Erdogan meeting, the Turkish President expressed disappointment over the prospect of the Artsakh issue settlement. Of course, over the solution beneficial to Turkey and Azerbaijan. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg emphasized the non-use of force at a meeting with Aliyev, whereas the main trump card of the Azerbaijani side is the use of force and its threat. In the paragraph related to conflict settlements within the EU Eastern Partnership Summit declaration, there is a general reference to the principles of international law and there is no reference to specific conflicts. The CSTO recently touched upon the Artsakh conflict in the same spirit.
Here, perhaps, we can conclude that Russia and the EU at the moment agree that in case of the Artsakh issue it is desirable to maintain the status quo, regardless of the fact that publicly they are saying something else. I would not hurry to rejoice: the preservation of this situation has both positive and negative sides, I will not enumerate, it has been spoken about it many times. The question is why this decision has been taken by them at this stage.
There are some signs that Russia and the EU are now trying to take steps for reconciliation. One of the manifestations is that, for example, no anti-Russian rhetoric has been voiced at the Eastern Partnership’s Brussels Summit. The only exception was the British Prime Minister’s speech, which is leaving the EU. On the other hand, Sergey Lavrov spoke very gently about the “partners” in an interview with the Belarusian TV Company, differentiating between both the EU and the Eastern Partnership countries, considering the desire of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus to cooperate more closely with Europe natural. Moreover, the Russian Foreign Minister hinted that his country would not oppose cooperating with Europe either in case of meeting certain conditions.
What will happen is hard to say, but under these conditions, Europe and Russia do not need to exacerbate the situation at any point in the former Soviet Union territory, including Ukraine. And who is interested in Saakashvili’s revolutionary activity, I think it is not difficult to guess.