“No positive shifts will be in place towards the conflict resolution. I can surely state this, not for 100%, but for 99% no progress will be recorded. War will not take place either. The conversations about war are a balloon. No large-scale war will happen. And what scale of escalation will take place on Artsakh-Azerbaijan border and what will it look like, it is difficult to say, it depends on our work and the work of the superpowers, Azerbaijan’s inner situation. This does not mean that the gunshots will cease at all. I cannot exclude that an escalation will take place”, announced the director of “Caucasus” institute, political scientist, Alexander Iskandaryan.
As stated by the speaker, the regional elections expected in Azerbaijan will not escalate the situation on the border, inasmuch as in Azerbaijan the authorities are not elected through elections. Nevertheless, this does not signify that the situation on the border will be quiet.
“A tension will be present, but the extent of the violence is difficult to predict. It depends on how much we will be able to restrain”, he explained. Meanwhile, he thinks that 2018 will be an important year for Artsakh conflict settlement.
Let us remind you that in the near future the regular meeting of Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s Ministers of Foreign Affairs is planned. He does not have any expectations connected with that meeting: the issue is not in the phase to have any expectations of changes. The schedule of the meetings does not relate to the issue settlement: “All issues are about security. Minsk Group is not engaged in the conflict settlement since long ago, the security issue is on agenda.”
The political scientist says that the most important event of 2018 will be the change of the political system. He clarifies – he gives an importance to the system, not individuals, thus he does not regard the issue of who will take the PM’s position in April a primary one: “We will have a system which differs from the current system, although now the RPA is a majority and the one to adopt a decision is the RPA. A system will be in place under which people will be “bought”, they will yield something, the decisions will be discussed furiously.”
The political scientist addressed also to Iranian evolvements. He does not consider himself an Iranologist, however, he assures that Armenia needs a stable Iran.